Check the sample
Review the underlying matches, not only the headline percentage.
1. Define the current setup
The research begins with a symbol, a time interval, and the technical indicators selected by the user. Together, these choices define which parts of the present market state the comparison should emphasize.
2. Search comparable history
NoobTrade evaluates available historical periods and ranks moments whose selected technical context is closest to the current setup. A higher similarity value indicates a closer comparison within that search; it does not mean the two periods are identical.
3. Form the comparable sample
The highest-ranked historical matches become the sample shown to the user. The app exposes individual dates and historical replay so the sample can be examined rather than treated as a black-box answer.
4. Summarize observed outcomes
The displayed probability summarizes how often a stated outcome occurred within the returned comparable sample. It is a description of those observations, not a probability law that controls the future.
Similarity answers “How close were the selected technical conditions?” The historical outcome probability answers “What share of those comparable samples met the stated condition?” Neither answer guarantees the next market move.
5. Inspect exceptions
Minority outcomes matter. Reviewing matches that developed differently can reveal how regime changes, unusual events, data limitations, or unselected variables may affect the comparison.
Interpretation checklist
Read the result with context.
Check the setup
Confirm that the selected indicators and interval reflect the question you intended to study.
Check the limits
Remember that historical data may omit new information, structural changes, or conditions outside the selected indicators.
Limitations: Historical similarity can provide context, but markets change. Data availability, parameter choices, selected indicators, sample size, market regime, and unexpected events can all affect the relevance of a comparison. NoobTrade results are not investment advice or a guarantee of future performance.